Barrow, the most northerly community in Alaska, observed a warming of 1.51 [degrees]C for the time period of 1921-2012. This represents about twice the global value, and is in agreement with the well-known polar amplification. For the time period of 1979-2012. high quality sea ice data are available, showing a strong decrease in sea ice concentrations of 14% and 16% for the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, respectively, the two marginal seas bordering Northern Alaska. For the same time period a mean annual temperature increase of 2.7[degrees]C is found, an accelerated increase of warming over the prior decades. Looking at the annual course of change in sea ice concentrations, there is little change observed in winter and spring, but in summer and especially autumn large changes were observed. October displayed the greatest change; the amount of open water increased by 44% and 46% for the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, respectively. The large amount of open water off the northern coast of Alaska in autumn was accompanied by an increase of the October temperature at Barrow by a very substantial 7.2[degrees]C over the 34 year time period. Over the same time period. Barrow's precipitation increased, the frequency of the surface inversion decreased, the wind speed increased slightly and the atmospheric pressure decreased somewhat.
Background: Evidence has accumulated in recent years regarding the scope of local and global climate changes attributed to exacerbating anthropogenic factors such as accelerating population growth, urbanization, industrialization, traffic and energy use. Remote space monitoring, unlike ground-based measurements, has the advantage of providing global coverage on a daily basis. Methods: MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Aqua and Terra 1°×1° spatial resolution as well as the 1 km higher resolution of Aqua-MODIS were investigated for a global overview of megacities temperature variations, as well as the recent trends of the 10 largest Monsoon Asian megacities. Results: The average Land Surface Temperature (LST) cross-sections of the 10 Asian megacities were examined for June-August 2002-2014. Temperature variations fit a spatial bell-shaped curve, with a pronounced maximum over the city center. Nighttime data indicated sharp LST decreases with distance from the city center, particularly in the coldest cities, those of Tokyo, Seoul, Osaka and Beijing. Conclusion: Daytime latitudinal (E-W) and longitudinal (N-S) Surface Urban Heat Islands (SUHI) have steeper gradients than for nighttime data. During daytime, the SUHI gradients are largest in Tokyo, Seoul, Osaka and Beijing with values reaching 15oC followed by the cities of Shanghai and Guangzhou with ~11oC, and Karachi with ~5oC SUHI. Nighttime SUHIs were more moderate, 4-6oC in Tokyo, Seoul ~5oC, Osaka 5-7oC and Beijing ~7oC. Only in the three largest megacities, i.e., Tokyo, Guangzhou and Shanghai, did the nighttime LST trends decline.
Background: The varied topographical features of the Indian region are responsible for variation in distribution of rainfall over different parts of the country. More than 80% of the country’s rainfall is received during the monsoon season. Researchers noted that there is change in distribution of this monsoon rainfall associated with climate change and global warming. This changing pattern in rainfall can be investigated by seasonality index (SI) of rainfall. Such studies are essential to identify the changes in runoff, infiltration, surface and groundwater management, agricultural planning, etc. Method: The variation in seasonality in rainfall over the Indian region is examined using monthly rainfall values for the period 1951 to 2015 of 34 meteorological sub-divisions excluding two Sea Islands. A seasonality index (SI) of a monthly rainfall is computed on monthly, seasonal (June to September) and annual scale. It is observed that seasonality index of rainfall of 34 sub-divisions for all months are in the range 0.37 (Jammu & Kashmir) to 1.56 (Saurashtra Kutch & Diu). Results: The results show that rainfall is markedly seasonal with a long dry season and most rainfall in less than three months. Most of the rainfall occurs in monsoon months. The seasonality index for monsoon season is computed and it varies from 0.19 (Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram,Tripura) to 0.59 (Saurashtra Kutch & Diu) resulting in rainfall spread throughout the year, but with a definite wetter season. Conclusion: Trends of this index through the 65-year period are identified and indicate that seasonality is increasing in Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat Region-Dadra & Nagar Haveli; Saurashtra-Kutch & Diu, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Chattisgarh, Tamilnadu & Pondicherry. The analysis clearly showed the climate change impact on northwest sub-divisions of the country showing increase in SI values leading to dryness during the monsoon season. The negative trend in SI values was observed in Sub- Himalayan West Bengal, Haryana-Delhi-Chandigarh, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, West and east Rajasthan, coastal Andhra Pradesh showing increasing wetness for an already wet months although rainfall occurs in a very short period of just a month or two.
Background: Nitric oxide concentration in the upper atmosphere is known to be highly dependent on the solar activity. It can be transported to the stratosphere by the atmospheric circulation. In the stratosphere it is responsible for the destruction of ozone and consequently stratospheric heating rates are affected. This is one of the mechanisms by which solar variability has been suspected to drive variability in the energetic budget of the Earth climate. Therefore, it is essential to know every physical and chemical processes leading to the production or to a destruction of nitric oxide. Aim: The aim of this work is to calculate the production rate of NO+ and some of the NO electronic states created by electron impact on NO at night in the auroral zone using an electron transport code. Conclusion: We study this variability under different precipitation conditions and taking into account the variability of the neutral atmosphere with the geomagnetic and solar activity. We find that the energetic electron precipitation has a very small effect on the absolute value of the NO+ and NO* production rates. In order to help further research to consider the effect of NO+ and NO*, we provide a table of all the production rates in a medium solar and geomagnetic activity case.
Background: Low-frequency atmospheric waves with gravity modes were recorded within 6.5 hours and 4.7 hours after two recent Chilean megathrust events, the 2010 Maule (Mw = 8.8), and 2014 Iquique (Mw = 8.2) earthquakes, respectively, at several microbarograph stations of the International Monitoring System (IMS) in South America and its surrounding regions. Method: Their apparent phase velocity up to the epicentral distances of 7,404 km and 6,481 km was found to be around 319 m/s and 337 m/s, respectively for the gravity modes after the two earthquakes. We tried to construct synthetic waveforms to be recorded at some of these microbarograph stations, incorporating various seismic source characteristics of the two earthquakes, and also a standard sound velocity structure up to a height of 220 km above the ground surface. The comparison appears to show some agreement between the observed and synthetic waveforms at least for the first 22 min for appropriate combinations of these source parameters. Results: The results indicate that the observed atmospheric gravity waves at the initial stage appear to have actually been excited at the source region of these megathrust earthquakes. Conclusion: The average rise time of vertical tectonic movement at the source region, which is estimated to be from the observed gravity waves, appears to be in the range between 2 and 3 min.
Background: This paper investigates sensitivity of bulk microphysical parameterization (BMP) schemes within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate a convective storm that generally evolves during pre-monsoon season (March – May) across the foothills of the Himalayas. Method: Four mixed-phase BMP schemes (Morrison, Lin, WDM6, and WSM6), which are parameterized with an increasing complexity from single to double moments of particle distribution to represent cloud processes, are used with an explicit convection permitting grid resolution (3 km x 3 km). Experiments are set up to simulate a convective storm that occurred in the late afternoon of 18th May 2011 and compared with i) Satellite-based tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) 3B42 v7 data, and ii) Ground-based observations at Nagarkot (27.7°N, 85.5°E), Nepal. Result: Our results show that the simulated storm characteristics are not overly sensitive to the chosen BMP schemes. In general, all the BMP schemes produce similar rainfall characteristics and compares reasonably well with the observations across Siwalik Hills and Middle Mountains, which act as a topographic barrier to low level circulations and receive more rain. The schemes, however, show negative bias across central Nepal including the Kathmandu Valley, albeit the magnitude and spatial distribution of bias are different between the schemes. In contrast, upper level total water condensate and cloud fraction show a strong sensitivity to the BMP schemes. Conclusion: Overall, the Morrison scheme, in addition to warm clouds which also predict double moment distribution of all hydrometeors in the cold-cloud processes, a dominant cloud forming process in the Himalayas, accurately represents the mechanism and outperforms the simplified schemes based on root mean square error (RMSE) analysis.
The Sun as climate driver is repeatedly discussed in the literature but proofs are often weak. In order to elucidate the solar influence, we have used a large number of temperature proxies worldwide to construct a global temperature mean G7 over the last 2000 years. The Fourier spectrum of G7 shows the strongest components as ~1000-, ~460-, and ~190 - year periods whereas other cycles of the individual proxies are considerably weaker. The G7 temperature extrema coincide with the Roman, medieval, and present optima as well as the well-known minimum of AD 1450 during the Little Ice Age. We have constructed by reverse Fourier transform a representation of G7 using only these three sine functions, which shows a remarkable Pearson correlation of 0.84 with the 31-year running average of G7. The three cycles are also found dominant in the production rates of the solar-induced cosmogenic nuclides 14C and 10Be, most strongly in the ~190 - year period being known as the De Vries/Suess cycle. By wavelet analysis, a new proof has been provided that at least the ~190-year climate cycle has a solar origin.
Background: Simultaneous measurements of air temperature were carried out using automatic weather stations at 14 tropical locations in Nigeria. Diurnal variations were derived from the 5-minute update cycle initial data for the years ranging between 2007 and 2013. The temperature trends in Nigeria revealed a continuous variability that is seasonally dependent within any particular year considered. Method: The analysis was carried out using available data from the network and the results are presented with a focus to characterize the temperature variations at different locations in the country using the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures from the north which is arid in nature to the south, which is a tropical monsoon climate type and a coastal region. Result: In overall, temperature variations in Nigeria were observed to have higher values in the far north, attributed to the influence of Sahara Desert, which has less cloud cover and therefore is more transparent to solar irradiance and lowers values in the south, where there are more cloud cover and abundant vegetation. Conclusion: Measured maximum and minimum temperatures in Nigeria are respectively 43.1°C at Yola (north-east part of Nigeria) and 10.2°C for Jos (north-central part of Nigeria). The least temperature variations were recorded for stations in the southern part of the country, while the largest variations were recorded in the north-central region of the country.
Background: The author compares several methods to map the a priori wet tropospheric delay of GNSS signals in Egypt from the zenith direction to lower elevations. Methods and Materials: The author compared the following mapping techniques against ray-traced delays computed for radiosonde profiles under the assumption of spherical symmetry: Saastamoinen, Hopfield, Black, Chao, Ifadis, Herring, Niell, Moffett, Black and Eisner and UNBabc mapping functions. Radiosonde data were computed from radiosonde stations at the Egyptian stations; in the south of Egypt, near the Mediterranean Sea, and near the Red Sea over a period of 5 years (2000-2005), most of the stations launched radiosonde twice daily, every day of the year. Moreover, data is received from the Egyptian Meteorology Authority. Results and Conclusion: The results indicate that currently, the saastamoinen mapping function should be used for all geodetic applications in Egypt, and if necessary, the Chao and Moffett mapping functions can serve as an acceptable replacement without introducing a significant bias into the station position.
Background: The effect of geomagnetic storms on the mid-high latitude F2 region is studied. Method: For this purpose, foF2 data from four Antarctic stations were analyzed during three intense magnetic storms occurred in high solar activity (years 2002 and 2003). In general, negative storm effects irrespective of the local time were observed during the first part of the storms (main phase). Negative effects were also observed more often than positive effects during the first part of the recovery phase, which seems to indicate almost no longitudinal dependence in this stage of the storm. Conclusion: The negative effects frequently changed to positive during the last stage of the recovery. Several physical mechanisms were operative during the different stages of the storms.
The climate change attribution problem is addressed using empirical decomposition. Cycles in solar motion and activity of 60 and 20 years were used to develop an empirical model of Earth temperature variations. The model was fit to the Hadley global temperature data up to 1950 (time period before anthropogenic emissions became the dominant forcing mechanism), and then extrapolated from 1951 to 2010. The residuals showed an approximate linear upward trend of about 0.66 degree C/century from 1942 to 2010. Herein we assume that this residual upward warming has been mostly induced by anthropogenic emissions, urbanization and land use change. The warming observed before 1942 is relatively small and is assumed to have been mostly naturally induced. The resulting full natural plus anthropogenic model fits the entire 160 year record very well. Residual analysis does not provide any evidence for a substantial cooling effect due to sulfate aerosols from 1940 to 1970. The cooling observed during that period may be due to a natural 60-year cycle, which is visible in the global temperature since 1850 and has been observed also in numerous multisecular climatic records. New solar activity proxy models are developed that suggest a mechanism for both the 60-year climate cycle and a portion of the long-term warming trend. Our results suggest that because current models underestimate the strength of natural multidecadal cycles in the temperature records, the anthropogenic contribution to climate change since 1850 should be less than half of that previously claimed by the IPCC. About 60% of the warming observed from 1970 to 2000 was very likely caused by the above natural 60-year climatic cycle during its warming phase. A 21st Century forecast suggests that climate may remain approximately steady until 2030-2040, and may at most warm 0.5-1.0 degree C by 2100 at the estimated 0.66 degree C/century anthropogenic warming rate, which is about 3.5 times smaller than the average 2.3 degree C/century anthropogenic warming rate projected by the IPCC up to the first decades of the 21st century. However, additional multisecular natural cycles may cool the climate further.