Summary Background Until now, polymyxin resistance has involved chromosomal mutations but has never been reported via horizontal gene transfer. During a routine surveillance project on antimicrobial resistance in commensal Escherichia coli from food animals in China, a major increase of colistin resistance was observed. When an E coli strain, SHP45, possessing colistin resistance that could be transferred to another strain, was isolated from a pig, we conducted further analysis of possible plasmid-mediated polymyxin resistance. Herein, we report the emergence of the first plasmid-mediated polymyxin resistance mechanism, MCR-1, in Enterobacteriaceae. Methods The mcr-1 gene in E coli strain SHP45 was identified by whole plasmid sequencing and subcloning. MCR-1 mechanistic studies were done with sequence comparisons, homology modelling, and electrospray ionisation mass spectrometry. The prevalence of mcr-1 was investigated in E coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae strains collected from five provinces between April, 2011, and November, 2014. The ability of MCR-1 to confer polymyxin resistance in vivo was examined in a murine thigh model. Findings Polymyxin resistance was shown to be singularly due to the plasmid-mediated mcr-1 gene. The plasmid carrying mcr-1 was mobilised to an E coli recipient at a frequency of 10−1 to 10−3 cells per recipient cell by conjugation, and maintained in K pneumoniae and Pseudomonas aeruginosa . In an in-vivo model, production of MCR-1 negated the efficacy of colistin. MCR-1 is a member of the phosphoethanolamine transferase enzyme family, with expression in E coli resulting in the addition of phosphoethanolamine to lipid A. We observed mcr-1 carriage in E coli isolates collected from 78 (15%) of 523 samples of raw meat and 166 (21%) of 804 animals during 2011–14, and 16 (1%) of 1322 samples from inpatients with infection. Interpretation The emergence of MCR-1 heralds the breach of the last group of antibiotics, polymyxins, by plasmid-mediated resistance. Although currently confined to China, MCR-1 is likely to emulate other global resistance mechanisms such as NDM-1. Our findings emphasise the urgent need for coordinated global action in the fight against pan-drug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria. Funding Ministry of Science and Technology of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China.
Summary Background The incidence of microcephaly in Brazil in 2015 was 20 times higher than in previous years. Congenital microcephaly is associated with genetic factors and several causative agents. Epidemiological data suggest that microcephaly cases in Brazil might be associated with the introduction of Zika virus. We aimed to detect and sequence the Zika virus genome in amniotic fluid samples of two pregnant women in Brazil whose fetuses were diagnosed with microcephaly. Methods In this case study, amniotic fluid samples from two pregnant women from the state of Paraíba in Brazil whose fetuses had been diagnosed with microcephaly were obtained, on the recommendation of the Brazilian health authorities, by ultrasound-guided transabdominal amniocentesis at 28 weeks' gestation. The women had presented at 18 weeks' and 10 weeks' gestation, respectively, with clinical manifestations that could have been symptoms of Zika virus infection, including fever, myalgia, and rash. After the amniotic fluid samples were centrifuged, DNA and RNA were extracted from the purified virus particles before the viral genome was identified by quantitative reverse transcription PCR and viral metagenomic next-generation sequencing. Phylogenetic reconstruction and investigation of recombination events were done by comparing the Brazilian Zika virus genome with sequences from other Zika strains and from flaviviruses that occur in similar regions in Brazil. Findings We detected the Zika virus genome in the amniotic fluid of both pregnant women. The virus was not detected in their urine or serum. Tests for dengue virus, chikungunya virus, Toxoplasma gondii , rubella virus, cytomegalovirus, herpes simplex virus, HIV, Treponema pallidum , and parvovirus B19 were all negative. After sequencing of the complete genome of the Brazilian Zika virus isolated from patient 1, phylogenetic analyses showed that the virus shares 97–100% of its genomic identity with lineages isolated during an outbreak in French Polynesia in 2013, and that in both envelope and NS5 genomic regions, it clustered with sequences from North and South America, southeast Asia, and the Pacific. After assessing the possibility of recombination events between the Zika virus and other flaviviruses, we ruled out the hypothesis that the Brazilian Zika virus genome is a recombinant strain with other mosquito-borne flaviviruses. Interpretation These findings strengthen the putative association between Zika virus and cases of microcephaly in neonates in Brazil. Moreover, our results suggest that the virus can cross the placental barrier. As a result, Zika virus should be considered as a potential infectious agent for human fetuses. Pathogenesis studies that confirm the tropism of Zika virus for neuronal cells are warranted. Funding Consellho Nacional de Desenvolvimento e Pesquisa (CNPq), Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ).
Summary The causes of antibiotic resistance are complex and include human behaviour at many levels of society; the consequences affect everybody in the world. Similarities with climate change are evident. Many efforts have been made to describe the many different facets of antibiotic resistance and the interventions needed to meet the challenge. However, coordinated action is largely absent, especially at the political level, both nationally and internationally. Antibiotics paved the way for unprecedented medical and societal developments, and are today indispensible in all health systems. Achievements in modern medicine, such as major surgery, organ transplantation, treatment of preterm babies, and cancer chemotherapy, which we today take for granted, would not be possible without access to effective treatment for bacterial infections. Within just a few years, we might be faced with dire setbacks, medically, socially, and economically, unless real and unprecedented global coordinated actions are immediately taken. Here, we describe the global situation of antibiotic resistance, its major causes and consequences, and identify key areas in which action is urgently needed.
Summary Background Antibiotic drug consumption is a major driver of antibiotic resistance. Variations in antibiotic resistance across countries are attributable, in part, to different volumes and patterns for antibiotic consumption. We aimed to assess variations in consumption to assist monitoring of the rise of resistance and development of rational-use policies and to provide a baseline for future assessment. Methods With use of sales data for retail and hospital pharmacies from the IMS Health MIDAS database, we reviewed trends for consumption of standard units of antibiotics between 2000 and 2010 for 71 countries. We used compound annual growth rates to assess temporal differences in consumption for each country and Fourier series and regression methods to assess seasonal differences in consumption in 63 of the countries. Findings Between 2000 and 2010, consumption of antibiotic drugs increased by 35% (from 52 057 163 835 standard units to 70 440 786 553). Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa accounted for 76% of this increase. In most countries, antibiotic consumption varied significantly with season. There was increased consumption of carbapenems (45%) and polymixins (13%), two last-resort classes of antibiotic drugs. Interpretation The rise of antibiotic consumption and the increase in use of last-resort antibiotic drugs raises serious concerns for public health. Appropriate use of antibiotics in developing countries should be encouraged. However, to prevent a striking rise in resistance in low-income and middle-income countries with large populations and to preserve antibiotic efficacy worldwide, programmes that promote rational use through coordinated efforts by the international community should be a priority. Funding US Department of Homeland Security, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US National Institutes of Health, Princeton Grand Challenges Program.
Background Antibiotic drug consumption is a major driver of antibiotic resistance. Variations in antibiotic resistance across countries are attributable, in part, to different volumes and patterns for antibiotic consumption. We aimed to assess variations in consumption to assist monitoring of the rise of resistance and development of rational-use policies and to provide a baseline for future assessment. Methods With use of sales data for retail and hospital pharmacies from the IMS Health MIDAS database, we reviewed trends for consumption of standard units of antibiotics between 2000 and 2010 for 71 countries. We used compound annual growth rates to assess temporal differences in consumption for each country and Fourier series and regression methods to assess seasonal differences in consumption in 63 of the countries. Findings Between 2000 and 2010, consumption of antibiotic drugs increased by 36% (from 54083 964 813 standard units to 73 620 748 816 standard units). Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa accounted for 76% of this increase. In most countries, antibiotic consumption varied significantly with season. There was increased consumption of carbapenems (45%) and polymixins (13%), two last-resort classes of antibiotic drugs. Interpretation The rise of antibiotic consumption and the increase in use of last-resort antibiotic drugs raises serious concerns for public health. Appropriate use of antibiotics in developing countries should be encouraged. However, to prevent a striking rise in resistance in low-income and middle-income countries with large populations and to preserve antibiotic efficacy worldwide, programmes that promote rational use through coordinated efforts by the international community should be a priority.
Summary Background Cryptococcus is the most common cause of meningitis in adults living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. Global burden estimates are crucial to guide prevention strategies and to determine treatment needs, and we aimed to provide an updated estimate of global incidence of HIV-associated cryptococcal disease. Methods We used 2014 Joint UN Programme on HIV and AIDS estimates of adults (aged >15 years) with HIV and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage. Estimates of CD4 less than 100 cells per μL, virological failure incidence, and loss to follow-up were from published multinational cohorts in low-income and middle-income countries. We calculated those at risk for cryptococcal infection, specifically those with CD4 less than 100 cells/μL not on ART, and those with CD4 less than 100 cells per μL on ART but lost to follow-up or with virological failure. Cryptococcal antigenaemia prevalence by country was derived from 46 studies globally. Based on cryptococcal antigenaemia prevalence in each country and region, we estimated the annual numbers of people who are developing and dying from cryptococcal meningitis. Findings We estimated an average global cryptococcal antigenaemia prevalence of 6·0% (95% CI 5·8–6·2) among people with a CD4 cell count of less than 100 cells per μL, with 278 000 (95% CI 195 500–340 600) people positive for cryptococcal antigen globally and 223 100 (95% CI 150 600–282 400) incident cases of cryptococcal meningitis globally in 2014. Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 73% of the estimated cryptococcal meningitis cases in 2014 (162 500 cases [95% CI 113 600–193 900]). Annual global deaths from cryptococcal meningitis were estimated at 181 100 (95% CI 119 400–234 300), with 135 900 (75%; [95% CI 93 900–163 900]) deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, cryptococcal meningitis was responsible for 15% of AIDS-related deaths (95% CI 10–19). Interpretation Our analysis highlights the substantial ongoing burden of HIV-associated cryptococcal disease, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa. Cryptococcal meningitis is a metric of HIV treatment programme failure; timely HIV testing and rapid linkage to care remain an urgent priority. Funding None.
Summary Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemases (KPCs) were originally identified in the USA in 1996. Since then, these versatile β-lactamases have spread internationally among Gram-negative bacteria, especially K pneumoniae , although their precise epidemiology is diverse across countries and regions. The mortality described among patients infected with organisms positive for KPC is high, perhaps as a result of the limited antibiotic options remaining (often colistin, tigecycline, or aminoglycosides). Triple drug combinations using colistin, tigecycline, and imipenem have recently been associated with improved survival among patients with bacteraemia. In this Review, we summarise the epidemiology of KPCs across continents, and discuss issues around detection, present antibiotic options and those in development, treatment outcome and mortality, and infection control. In view of the limitations of present treatments and the paucity of new drugs in the pipeline, infection control must be our primary defence for now.
Summary Background The effect of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) depends on uptake, adherence, and sexual practices. We aimed to assess these factors in a cohort of HIV-negative people at risk of infection. Methods In our cohort study, men and transgender women who have sex with men previously enrolled in PrEP trials (ATN 082, iPrEx, and US Safety Study) were enrolled in a 72 week open-label extension. We measured drug concentrations in plasma and dried blood spots in seroconverters and a random sample of seronegative participants. We assessed PrEP uptake, adherence, sexual practices, and HIV incidence. Statistical methods included Poisson models, comparison of proportions, and generalised estimating equations. Findings We enrolled 1603 HIV-negative people, of whom 1225 (76%) received PrEP. Uptake was higher among those reporting condomless receptive anal intercourse (416/519 [81%] vs 809/1084 [75%], p=0·003) and having serological evidence of herpes (612/791 [77%] vs 613/812 [75%] p=0·03). Of those receiving PrEP, HIV incidence was 1·8 infections per 100 person-years, compared with 2·6 infections per 100 person-years in those who concurrently did not choose PrEP (HR 0·51, 95% CI 0·26–1·01, adjusted for sexual behaviours), and 3·9 infections per 100 person-years in the placebo group of the previous randomised phase (HR 0·49, 95% CI 0·31–0·77). Among those receiving PrEP, HIV incidence was 4·7 infections per 100 person-years if drug was not detected in dried blood spots, 2·3 infections per 100 person-years if drug concentrations suggested use of fewer than two tablets per week, 0·6 per 100 person-years for use of two to three tablets per week, and 0·0 per 100 person-years for use of four or more tablets per week (p<0·0001). PrEP drug concentrations were higher among people of older age, with more schooling, who reported non-condom receptive anal intercourse, who had more sexual partners, and who had a history of syphilis or herpes. Interpretation PrEP uptake was high when made available free of charge by experienced providers. The effect of PrEP is increased by greater uptake and adherence during periods of higher risk. Drug concentrations in dried blood spots are strongly correlated with protective benefit. Funding US National Institutes of Health.
Summary Sepsis is a common and lethal syndrome: although outcomes have improved, mortality remains high. No specific anti-sepsis treatments exist; as such, management of patients relies mainly on early recognition allowing correct therapeutic measures to be started rapidly, including administration of appropriate antibiotics, source control measures when necessary, and resuscitation with intravenous fluids and vasoactive drugs when needed. Although substantial developments have been made in the understanding of the basic pathogenesis of sepsis and the complex interplay of host, pathogen, and environment that affect the incidence and course of the disease, sepsis has stubbornly resisted all efforts to successfully develop and then deploy new and improved treatments. Existing models of clinical research seem increasingly unlikely to produce new therapies that will result in a step change in clinical outcomes. In this Commission, we set out our understanding of the clinical epidemiology and management of sepsis and then ask how the present approaches might be challenged to develop a new roadmap for future research.
Summary Background Despite substantial decreases in recent decades, acute gastroenteritis causes the second greatest burden of all infectious diseases worldwide. Noroviruses are a leading cause of sporadic cases and outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis across all age groups. We aimed to assess the role of norovirus as a cause of endemic acute gastroenteritis worldwide. Methods We searched Embase, Medline, and Global Health databases from Jan 1, 2008, to March 8, 2014, for studies that used PCR diagnostics to assess the prevalence of norovirus in individuals with acute gastroenteritis. We included studies that were done continuously for 1 year or more from a specified catchment area (geographical area or group of people), enrolled patients who presented with symptoms of acute gastroenteritis, and used PCR-based diagnostics for norovirus on all stool specimens from patients with acute gastroenteritis. The primary outcome was prevalence of norovirus among all cases of gastroenteritis. We generated pooled estimates of prevalence by fitting linear mixed-effect meta-regression models. Findings Of 175 articles included, the pooled prevalence of norovirus in 187 336 patients with acute gastroenteritis was 18% (95% CI 17–20). Norovirus prevalence tended to be higher in cases of acute gastroenteritis in community (24%, 18–30) and outpatient (20%, 16–24) settings compared with inpatient (17%, 15–19, p=0·066) settings. Prevalence was also higher in low-mortality developing (19%, 16–22) and developed countries (20%, 17–22) compared with high-mortality developing countries (14%, 11–16; p=0·058). Patient age and whether the study included years of novel strain emergence were not associated with norovirus prevalence. Interpretation Norovirus is a key gastroenteritis pathogen associated with almost a fifth of all cases of acute gastroenteritis, and targeted intervention to reduce norovirus burden, such as vaccines, should be considered. Funding The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) of WHO and the Government of the Netherlands on behalf of FERG.
Summary Background Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programmes were first implemented in several countries worldwide in 2007. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the population-level consequences and herd effects after female HPV vaccination programmes, to verify whether or not the high efficacy reported in randomised controlled clinical trials are materialising in real-world situations. Methods We searched the Medline and Embase databases (between Jan 1, 2007 and Feb 28, 2014) and conference abstracts for time-trend studies that analysed changes, between the pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods, in the incidence or prevalence of at least one HPV-related endpoint: HPV infection, anogenital warts, and high-grade cervical lesions. We used random-effects models to derive pooled relative risk (RR) estimates. We stratified all analyses by age and sex. We did subgroup analyses by comparing studies according to vaccine type, vaccination coverage, and years since implementation of the vaccination programme. We assessed heterogeneity across studies using I2 and χ2 statistics and we did trends analysis to examine the dose–response association between HPV vaccination coverage and each study effect measure. Findings We identified 20 eligible studies, which were all undertaken in nine high-income countries and represent more than 140 million person-years of follow-up. In countries with female vaccination coverage of at least 50%, HPV type 16 and 18 infections decreased significantly between the pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods by 68% (RR 0·32, 95% CI 0·19–0·52) and anogenital warts decreased significantly by 61% (0·39, 0·22–0·71) in girls 13–19 years of age. Significant reductions were also recorded in HPV types 31, 33, and 45 in this age group of girls (RR 0·72, 95% CI 0·54–0·96), which suggests cross-protection. Additionally, significant reductions in anogenital warts were also reported in boys younger than 20 years of age (0·66 [95% CI 0·47–0·91]) and in women 20–39 years of age (0·68 [95% CI 0·51–0·89]), which suggests herd effects. In countries with female vaccination coverage lower than 50%, significant reductions in HPV types 16 and 18 infection (RR 0·50, 95% CI 0·34–0·74]) and in anogenital warts (0·86 [95% CI 0·79–0·94]) occurred in girls younger than 20 years of age, with no indication of cross-protection or herd effects. Interpretation Our results are promising for the long-term population-level effects of HPV vaccination programmes. However, continued monitoring is essential to identify any signals of potential waning efficacy or type-replacement. Funding The Canadian Institutes of Health Research.
Summary Background Treatment options are limited for patients infected by hepatitis C virus (HCV) with advanced liver disease. We assessed the safety and efficacy of ledipasvir, sofosbuvir, and ribavirin in patients with HCV genotype 1 or 4 and advanced liver disease. Methods We did an open-label study at 34 sites in Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Cohort A included patients with Child-Turcotte-Pugh class B (CTP-B) or CTP-C cirrhosis who had not undergone liver transplantation. Cohort B included post-transplantation patients who had either no cirrhosis; CTP-A, CTP-B, or CTP-C cirrhosis; or fibrosing cholestatic hepatitis. Patients in each group were randomly assigned (1:1) using a computer-generated randomisation sequence to receive 12 or 24 weeks of ledipasvir (90 mg) and sofosbuvir (400 mg) once daily (combination tablet), plus ribavirin (600–1200 mg daily). The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients achieving a sustained virological response 12 weeks after treatment (SVR12). All patients who received at least one dose of study drug were included in the safety analysis and all patients who received at least one dose of study drug and did not undergo liver transplantation during treatment were included in the efficacy analyses. Estimates of SVR12 and relapse rates and their two-sided 90% CI (Clopper-Pearson method) were provided. This exploratory phase 2 study was not powered for formal comparisons among treatment groups; no statistical hypothesis testing was planned or conducted. The trial is registered with EudraCT (number 2013-002802-30) and ClinicalTrials.gov (number NCT02010255 ). Findings Between Jan 14, 2014, and Aug 19, 2014, 398 patients were screened. Of 333 patients who received treatment, 296 had genotype 1 HCV and 37 had genotype 4 HCV. In cohort A, among patients with genotype 1 HCV, SVR12 was achieved by 20 (87%, 90% CI 70–96) of 23 CTP-B patients with 12 weeks of treatment; 22 (96%, 81–100) of 23 CTP-B patients with 24 weeks of treatment; 17 (85%, 66–96) of 20 CTP-C patients (12 weeks treatment); and 18 (78%, 60–91) of 23 CTP-C patients (24 weeks treatment). In cohort B, among patients with genotype 1 HCV, SVR12 was achieved by 42 (93%, 84–98) of 45 patients without cirrhosis (12 weeks treatment); 44 (100%, 93–100) of 44 patients without cirrhosis (24 weeks treatment); 30 (100%, 91–100) of 30 CTP-A patients (12 weeks treatment); 27 (96%, 84–100) of 28 CTP-A patients (24 weeks treatment); 19 (95%, 78–100) of 20 CTP-B patients (12 weeks treatment); 20 (100%, 86–100) of 20 CTP-B patients (24 weeks treatment); one (50%, 3–98) of two CTP-C patients (12 weeks treatment); and four (80%, 34–99) of five CTP-C patients (24 weeks treatment). All five patients with fibrosing cholestatic hepatitis achieved SVR12 (100%, 90% CI 55–100). Among all patients with genotype 4 HCV, SVR12 was achieved by 14 (78%, 56–92) of 18 patients (12 weeks treatment) and 16 (94%, 75–100) of 17 patients (24 weeks treatment). Seven patients (2%) discontinued ledipasvir–sofosbuvir prematurely due to adverse events. 17 patients died, mainly from complications of hepatic decompensation. Interpretation Ledipasvir–sofosbuvir and ribavirin provided high rates of SVR12 for patients with advanced liver disease, including those with decompensated cirrhosis before or after liver transplantation. Funding Gilead Sciences.
Summary Background No published meta-analyses have assessed efficacy and effectiveness of licensed influenza vaccines in the USA with sensitive and highly specific diagnostic tests to confirm influenza. Methods We searched Medline for randomised controlled trials assessing a relative reduction in influenza risk of all circulating influenza viruses during individual seasons after vaccination (efficacy) and observational studies meeting inclusion criteria (effectiveness). Eligible articles were published between Jan 1, 1967, and Feb 15, 2011, and used RT-PCR or culture for confirmation of influenza. We excluded some studies on the basis of study design and vaccine characteristics. We estimated random-effects pooled efficacy for trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) and live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) when data were available for statistical analysis (eg, at least three studies that assessed comparable age groups). Findings We screened 5707 articles and identified 31 eligible studies (17 randomised controlled trials and 14 observational studies). Efficacy of TIV was shown in eight (67%) of the 12 seasons analysed in ten randomised controlled trials (pooled efficacy 59% [95% CI 51–67] in adults aged 18–65 years). No such trials met inclusion criteria for children aged 2–17 years or adults aged 65 years or older. Efficacy of LAIV was shown in nine (75%) of the 12 seasons analysed in ten randomised controlled trials (pooled efficacy 83% [69–91]) in children aged 6 months to 7 years. No such trials met inclusion criteria for children aged 8–17 years. Vaccine effectiveness was variable for seasonal influenza: six (35%) of 17 analyses in nine studies showed significant protection against medically attended influenza in the outpatient or inpatient setting. Median monovalent pandemic H1N1 vaccine effectiveness in five observational studies was 69% (range 60–93). Interpretation Influenza vaccines can provide moderate protection against virologically confirmed influenza, but such protection is greatly reduced or absent in some seasons. Evidence for protection in adults aged 65 years or older is lacking. LAIVs consistently show highest efficacy in young children (aged 6 months to 7 years). New vaccines with improved clinical efficacy and effectiveness are needed to further reduce influenza-related morbidity and mortality. Funding Alfred P Sloan Foundation.
Summary Failures of highly touted trials have caused experts to call for re-evaluation of the current approach toward sepsis. New research has revealed key pathogenic mechanisms; autopsy results have shown that most patients admitted to intensive care units for treatment of sepsis had unresolved septic foci at post mortem, suggesting that patients were unable to eradicate invading pathogens and were more susceptible to nosocomial organisms, or both. These results suggest that therapies that improve host immunity might increase survival. Additional work showed that cytokine production by splenocytes taken post mortem from patients who died of sepsis is profoundly suppressed, possibly because of so-called T-cell exhaustion—a newly recognised immunosuppressive mechanism that occurs with chronic antigenic stimulation. Results from two clinical trials of biomarker-guided therapeutic drugs that boosted immunity showed promising findings in sepsis. Collectively, these studies emphasise the degree of immunosuppression that occurs in sepsis, and explain why many previous sepsis trials which were directed at blocking inflammatory mediators or pathogen recognition signalling pathways failed. Finally, highly encouraging results from use of the new immunomodulatory molecules interleukin 7 and anti-programmed cell death 1 in infectious disease point the way for possible use in sepsis. We hypothesise that immunoadjuvant therapy represents the next major advance in sepsis.
Summary Background WHO recommends routine use of rotavirus vaccines in all countries, particularly in those with high mortality attributable to diarrhoeal diseases. To establish the burden of life-threatening rotavirus disease before the introduction of a rotavirus vaccine, we aimed to update the estimated number of deaths worldwide in children younger than 5 years due to diarrhoea attributable to rotavirus infection. Methods We used PubMed to identify studies of at least 100 children younger than 5 years who had been admitted to hospital with diarrhoea. Additionally, we required the studies to have a data collection midpoint of the year 2000 or later, to be done in full-year increments, and to assesses diarrhoea attributable to rotavirus with EIAs or polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. We also included data from countries that participated in the WHO-coordinated Global Rotavirus Surveillance Network (consisting of participating member states during 2009) and that met study criteria. For countries that have introduced a rotavirus vaccine into their national immunisation programmes, we excluded data subsequent to the introduction. We classified studies into one of five groups on the basis of region and the level of child mortality in the country in which the study was done. For each group, to obtain estimates of rotavirus-associated mortality, we multiplied the random-effect mean rotavirus detection rate by the 2008 diarrhoea-related mortality figures for countries in that group. We derived the worldwide mortality estimate by summing our regional estimates. Findings Worldwide in 2008, diarrhoea attributable to rotavirus infection resulted in 453 000 deaths (95% CI 420 000–494 000) in children younger than 5 years—37% of deaths attributable to diarrhoea and 5% of all deaths in children younger than 5 years. Five countries accounted for more than half of all deaths attributable to rotavirus infection: Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, and Pakistan; India alone accounted for 22% of deaths (98 621 deaths). Interpretation Introduction of effective and available rotavirus vaccines could substantially affect worldwide deaths attributable to diarrhoea. Our new estimates can be used to advocate for rotavirus vaccine introduction and to monitor the effect of vaccination on mortality once introduced. Funding None.
Summary Background In 2000, seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) was introduced in the USA and resulted in dramatic reductions in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and moderate increases in non-PCV7 type IPD. In 2010, PCV13 replaced PCV7 in the US immunisation schedule. We aimed to assess the effect of use of PCV13 in children on IPD in children and adults in the USA. Methods We used laboratory-based and population-based data on incidence of IPD from the Active Bacterial Core surveillance (part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Emerging Infections Program) in a time-series model to compare rates of IPD before and after the introduction of PCV13. Cases of IPD between July 1, 2004, and June 30, 2013, were classified as being caused by the PCV13 serotypes against which PCV7 has no effect (PCV13 minus PCV7). In a time-series model, we used an expected outcomes approach to compare the reported incidence of IPD to that which would have been expected if PCV13 had not replaced PCV7. Findings Compared with incidence expected among children younger than 5 years if PCV7 alone had been continued, incidence of IPD overall declined by 64% (95% interval estimate [95% IE] 59–68) and IPD caused by PCV13 minus PCV7 serotypes declined by 93% (91–94), by July, 2012, to June, 2013. Among adults, incidence of IPD overall also declined by 12–32% and IPD caused by PCV13 minus PCV7 type IPD declined by 58–72%, depending on age. We estimated that over 30 000 cases of IPD and 3000 deaths were averted in the first 3 years after the introduction of PCV13. Interpretation PCV13 reduced IPD across all age groups when used routinely in children in the USA. These findings provide reassurance that, similar to PCV7, PCVs with additional serotypes can also prevent transmission to unvaccinated populations. Funding Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Summary Background In critically ill patients, antibiotic therapy is of great importance but long duration of treatment is associated with the development of antimicrobial resistance. Procalcitonin is a marker used to guide antibacterial therapy and reduce its duration, but data about safety of this reduction are scarce. We assessed the efficacy and safety of procalcitonin-guided antibiotic treatment in patients in intensive care units (ICUs) in a health-care system with a comparatively low use of antibiotics. Methods We did a prospective, multicentre, randomised, controlled, open-label intervention trial in 15 hospitals in the Netherlands. Critically ill patients aged at least 18 years, admitted to the ICU, and who received their first dose of antibiotics no longer than 24 h before inclusion in the study for an assumed or proven infection were eligible to participate. Patients who received antibiotics for presumed infection were randomly assigned (1:1), using a computer-generated list, and stratified (according to treatment centre, whether infection was acquired before or during ICU stay, and dependent on severity of infection [ie, sepsis, severe sepsis, or septic shock]) to receive either procalcitonin-guided or standard-of-care antibiotic discontinuation. Both patients and investigators were aware of group assignment. In the procalcitonin-guided group, a non-binding advice to discontinue antibiotics was provided if procalcitonin concentration had decreased by 80% or more of its peak value or to 0·5 μg/L or lower. In the standard-of-care group, patients were treated according to local antibiotic protocols. Primary endpoints were antibiotic daily defined doses and duration of antibiotic treatment. All analyses were done by intention to treat. Mortality analyses were completed for all patients (intention to treat) and for patients in whom antibiotics were stopped while being on the ICU (per-protocol analysis). Safety endpoints were reinstitution of antibiotics and recurrent inflammation measured by C-reactive protein concentrations and they were measured in the population adhering to the stopping rules (per-protocol analysis). The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov , number NCT01139489 , and was completed in August, 2014. Findings Between Sept 18, 2009, and July 1, 2013, 1575 of the 4507 patients assessed for eligibility were randomly assigned to the procalcitonin-guided group (761) or to standard-of-care (785). In 538 patients (71%) in the procalcitonin-guided group antibiotics were discontinued in the ICU. Median consumption of antibiotics was 7·5 daily defined doses (IQR 4·0–12·7) in the procalcitonin-guided group versus 9·3 daily defined doses (5·0–16·6) in the standard-of-care group (between-group absolute difference 2·69, 95% CI 1·26–4·12, p<0·0001). Median duration of treatment was 5 days (3–9) in the procalcitonin-guided group and 7 days (4–11) in the standard-of-care group (between-group absolute difference 1·22, 0·65–1·78, p<0·0001). Mortality at 28 days was 149 (20%) of 761 patients in the procalcitonin-guided group and 196 (25%) of 785 patients in the standard-of-care group (between-group absolute difference 5·4%, 95% CI 1·2–9·5, p=0·0122) according to the intention-to-treat analysis, and 107 (20%) of 538 patients in the procalcitonin-guided group versus 121 (27%) of 457 patients in the standard-of-care group (between-group absolute difference 6·6%, 1·3–11·9, p=0·0154) in the per-protocol analysis. 1-year mortality in the per-protocol analysis was 191 (36%) of 538 patients in the procalcitonin-guided and 196 (43%) of 457 patients in the standard-of-care groups (between-group absolute difference 7·4, 1·3–13·8, p=0·0188). Interpretation Procalcitonin guidance stimulates reduction of duration of treatment and daily defined doses in critically ill patients with a presumed bacterial infection. This reduction was associated with a significant decrease in mortality. Procalcitonin concentrations might help physicians in deciding whether or not the presumed infection is truly bacterial, leading to more adequate diagnosis and treatment, the cornerstones of antibiotic stewardship. Funding Thermo Fisher Scientific.
Summary Background Gram-negative Enterobacteriaceae with resistance to carbapenem conferred by New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase 1 (NDM-1) are potentially a major global health problem. We investigated the prevalence of NDM-1, in multidrug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae in India, Pakistan, and the UK. Methods Enterobacteriaceae isolates were studied from two major centres in India—Chennai (south India), Haryana (north India)—and those referred to the UK's national reference laboratory. Antibiotic susceptibilities were assessed, and the presence of the carbapenem resistance gene blaNDM-1 was established by PCR. Isolates were typed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis of XbaI-restricted genomic DNA. Plasmids were analysed by S1 nuclease digestion and PCR typing. Case data for UK patients were reviewed for evidence of travel and recent admission to hospitals in India or Pakistan. Findings We identified 44 isolates with NDM-1 in Chennai, 26 in Haryana, 37 in the UK, and 73 in other sites in India and Pakistan. NDM-1 was mostly found among Escherichia coli (36) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (111), which were highly resistant to all antibiotics except to tigecycline and colistin. K pneumoniae isolates from Haryana were clonal but NDM-1 producers from the UK and Chennai were clonally diverse. Most isolates carried the NDM-1 gene on plasmids: those from UK and Chennai were readily transferable whereas those from Haryana were not conjugative. Many of the UK NDM-1 positive patients had travelled to India or Pakistan within the past year, or had links with these countries. Interpretation The potential of NDM-1 to be a worldwide public health problem is great, and co-ordinated international surveillance is needed. Funding European Union, Wellcome Trust, and Wyeth.
Summary Background Procalcitonin is a promising marker for identification of bacterial infections. We assessed the accuracy and clinical value of procalcitonin for diagnosis of sepsis in critically ill patients. Methods We searched Medline, Embase, ISI Web of Knowledge, the Cochrane Library, Scopus, BioMed Central, and Science Direct, from inception to Feb 21, 2012, and reference lists of identified primary studies. We included articles written in English, German, or French that investigated procalcitonin for differentiation of septic patients—those with sepsis, severe sepsis, or septic shock—from those with a systemic inflammatory response syndrome of non-infectious origin. Studies of healthy people, patients without probable infection, and children younger than 28 days were excluded. Two independent investigators extracted patient and study characteristics; discrepancies were resolved by consensus. We calculated individual and pooled sensitivities and specificities. We used I2 to test heterogeneity and investigated the source of heterogeneity by metaregression. Findings Our search returned 3487 reports, of which 30 fulfilled the inclusion criteria, accounting for 3244 patients. Bivariate analysis yielded a mean sensitivity of 0·77 (95% CI 0·72–0·81) and specificity of 0·79 (95% CI 0·74–0·84). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0·85 (95% CI 0·81–0·88). The studies had substantial heterogeneity ( I2 =96%, 95% CI 94–99). None of the subgroups investigated—population, admission category, assay used, severity of disease, and description and masking of the reference standard—could account for the heterogeneity. Interpretation Procalcitonin is a helpful biomarker for early diagnosis of sepsis in critically ill patients. Nevertheless, the results of the test must be interpreted carefully in the context of medical history, physical examination, and microbiological assessment. Funding Ministry of Education and Research, the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Thuringian Ministry for Education, Science and Culture, the Thuringian Foundation for Technology, Innovation and Research, and the German Sepsis Society.
[...]pregnant women in areas where Zika virus is widespread should protect themselves not only from mosquitoes, but also from infectious virus in the semen of their partnersat least during pregnancy. [...]countries currently most affected by Zika virus have varying laws on womens' sexual and reproductive rights.5 New efficient strategies to prevent unintended pregnancy and also the provision of easy access to contraception or medical abortions must be implemented quickly.