Summary Background The population infected with HIV is getting older and these people will increasingly develop age-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We aimed to quantify the scale of the change and the implications for HIV care in the Netherlands in the future. Methods We constructed an individual-based model of the ageing HIV-infected population, which followed patients on HIV treatment as they age, develop NCDs—including cardiovascular disease (hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, myocardial infarctions, and strokes), diabetes, chronic kidney disease, osteoporosis, and non-AIDS malignancies—and start co-medication for these diseases. The model was parameterised by use of data for 10 278 patients from the national Dutch ATHENA cohort between 1996 and 2010. We made projections up to 2030. Findings Our model suggests that the median age of HIV-infected patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) will increase from 43·9 years in 2010 to 56·6 in 2030, with the proportion of HIV-infected patients aged 50 years or older increasing from 28% in 2010 to 73% in 2030. In 2030, we predict that 84% of HIV-infected patients will have at least one NCD, up from 29% in 2010, with 28% of HIV-infected patients in 2030 having three or more NCDs. 54% of HIV-infected patients will be prescribed co-medications in 2030, compared with 13% in 2010, with 20% taking three or more co-medications. Most of this change will be driven by increasing prevalence of cardiovascular disease and associated drugs. Because of contraindications and drug–drug interactions, in 2030, 40% of patients could have complications with the currently recommended first-line HIV regimens. Interpretation The profile of patients in the Netherlands infected with HIV is changing, with increasing numbers of older patients with multiple morbidities. These changes mean that, in the near future, HIV care will increasingly need to draw on a wide range of medical disciplines, in addition to evidence-based screening and monitoring protocols to ensure continued high-quality care. These findings are based on a large dataset of HIV-infected patients in the Netherlands, but we believe that the overall patterns will be repeated elsewhere in Europe and North America. The implications of such a trend for care of HIV-infected patients in high-burden countries in Africa could present a particular challenge. Funding Medical Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Rush Foundation, and Netherlands Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport.
Summary Background Diagnosis of Clostridium difficile infection is controversial because of many laboratory methods, compounded by two reference methods. Cytotoxigenic culture detects toxigenic C difficile and gives a positive result more frequently (eg, because of colonisation, which means that individuals can have the bacterium but no free toxin) than does the cytotoxin assay, which detects preformed toxin in faeces. We aimed to validate the reference methods according to clinical outcomes and to derive an optimum laboratory diagnostic algorithm for C difficile infection. Methods In this prospective, multicentre study, we did cytotoxigenic culture and cytotoxin assays on 12 420 faecal samples in four UK laboratories. We also performed tests that represent the three main targets for C difficile detection: bacterium (glutamate dehydrogenase), toxins, or toxin genes. We used routine blood test results, length of hospital stay, and 30-day mortality to clinically validate the reference methods. Data were categorised by reference method result: group 1, cytotoxin assay positive; group 2, cytotoxigenic culture positive and cytotoxin assay negative; and group 3, both reference methods negative. Findings Clinical and reference assay data were available for 6522 inpatient episodes. On univariate analysis, mortality was significantly higher in group 1 than in group 2 (72/435 [16·6%] vs 20/207 [9·7%], p=0·044) and in group 3 (503/5880 [8·6%], p<0·001), but not in group 2 compared with group 3 (p=0·4). A multivariate analysis accounting for potential confounders confirmed the mortality differences between groups 1 and 3 (OR 1·61, 95% CI 1·12–2·31). Multistage algorithms performed better than did standalone assays. Interpretation We noted no increase in mortality when toxigenic C difficile alone was present. Toxin (cytotoxin assay) positivity correlated with clinical outcome, and so this reference method best defines true cases of C difficile infection. A new diagnostic category of potential C difficile excretor (cytotoxigenic culture positive but cytotoxin assay negative) could be used to characterise patients with diarrhoea that is probably not due to C difficile infection, but who can cause cross-infection. Funding Department of Health and Health Protection Agency, UK.
Summary Background As the prevalence of artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria increases in the Greater Mekong subregion, emerging resistance to partner drugs in artemisinin combination therapies seriously threatens global efforts to treat and eliminate this disease. Molecular markers that predict failure of artemisinin combination therapy are urgently needed to monitor the spread of partner drug resistance, and to recommend alternative treatments in southeast Asia and beyond. Methods We did a genome-wide association study of 297 P falciparum isolates from Cambodia to investigate the relationship of 11 630 exonic single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 43 copy number variations (CNVs) with in-vitro piperaquine 50% inhibitory concentrations (IC50 s), and tested whether these genetic variants are markers of treatment failure with dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine. We then did a survival analysis of 133 patients to determine whether candidate molecular markers predicted parasite recrudescence following dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine treatment. Findings Piperaquine IC50 s increased significantly from 2011 to 2013 in three Cambodian provinces (2011 vs 2013 median IC50 s: 20·0 nmol/L [IQR 13·7–29·0] vs 39·2 nmol/L [32·8–48·1] for Ratanakiri, 19·3 nmol/L [15·1–26·2] vs 66·2 nmol/L [49·9–83·0] for Preah Vihear, and 19·6 nmol/L [11·9–33·9] vs 81·1 nmol/L [61·3–113·1] for Pursat; all p≤10−3 ; Kruskal-Wallis test). Genome-wide analysis of SNPs identified a chromosome 13 region that associates with raised piperaquine IC50 s. A non-synonymous SNP (encoding a Glu415Gly substitution) in this region, within a gene encoding an exonuclease, associates with parasite recrudescence following dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine treatment. Genome-wide analysis of CNVs revealed that a single copy of the mdr1 gene on chromosome 5 and a novel amplification of the plasmepsin 2 and plasmepsin 3 genes on chromosome 14 also associate with raised piperaquine IC50 s. After adjusting for covariates, both exo-E415G and plasmepsin 2–3 markers significantly associate (p=3·0 × 10−8 and p=1·7 × 10−7 , respectively) with decreased treatment efficacy (survival rates 0·38 [95% CI 0·25–0·51] and 0·41 [0·28–0·53], respectively). Interpretation The exo-E415G SNP and plasmepsin 2–3 amplification are markers of piperaquine resistance and dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine failures in Cambodia, and can help monitor the spread of these phenotypes into other countries of the Greater Mekong subregion, and elucidate the mechanism of piperaquine resistance. Since plasmepsins are involved in the parasite’s haemoglobin-to-haemozoin conversion pathway, targeted by related antimalarials, plasmepsin 2–3 amplification probably mediates piperaquine resistance. Funding Intramural Research Program of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Wellcome Trust, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Medical Research Council, and UK Department for International Development.
Summary Background Schistosomiasis is a snail-borne parasitic disease endemic in several tropical and subtropical countries. However, in the summer of 2013, an unexpected outbreak of urogenital schistosomiasis occurred in Corsica, with more than 120 local people or tourists infected. We used a multidisciplinary approach to investigate the epidemiology of urogenital schistosomiasis in Corsica, aiming to elucidate the origin of the outbreak. Methods We did parasitological and malacological surveys at nine potential sites of infection. With the snails found, we carried out snail–parasite compatibility experiments by exposing snails to schistosome larvae recovered from the urine of a locally infected Corsican patient. Genetic analysis of both mitochondrial ( cox1 ) and nuclear (internal transcribed spacer) DNA data from the Schistosoma eggs or miracidia recovered from the infected patients was conducted to elucidate the epidemiology of this outbreak. Findings We identified two main infection foci along the Cavu River, with many Bulinus truncatus snails found in both locations. Of the 3544 snails recovered across all sites, none were naturally infected, but laboratory-based experimental infections confirmed their compatibility with the schistosomes isolated from patients. Molecular characterisation of 73 eggs or miracidia isolated from 12 patients showed infection with Schistosoma haematobium, S haematobium–Schistosoma bovis hybrids, and S bovis . Further sequence data analysis also showed that the Corsican schistosomes were closely related to those from Senegal in west Africa. Interpretation The freshwater swimming pools of the Cavu River harbour many B truncatus snails, which are capable of transmitting S haematobium -group schistosomes. Our molecular data suggest that the parasites were imported into Corsica by individuals infected in west Africa, specifically Senegal. Hybridisation between S haematobium and the cattle schistosome S bovis had a putative role in this outbreak, showing how easily and rapidly urogenital schistosomiasis can be introduced and spread into novel areas where Bulinus snails are endemic, and how hybridisation could increase the colonisation potential of schistosomes. Furthermore our results show the potential risk of schistosomiasis outbreaks in other European areas, warranting close monitoring and surveillance of all potential transmission foci. Funding WHO, ANSES, RICET, and the Ministry of Health and Consumption.
Summary Background The declining efficacy of existing antibiotics potentially jeopardises outcomes in patients undergoing medical procedures. We investigated the potential consequences of increases in antibiotic resistance on the ten most common surgical procedures and immunosuppressing cancer chemotherapies that rely on antibiotic prophylaxis in the USA. Methods We searched the published scientific literature and identified meta-analyses and reviews of randomised controlled trials or quasi-randomised controlled trials (allocation done on the basis of a pseudo-random sequence—eg, odd/even hospital number or date of birth, alternation) to estimate the efficacy of antibiotic prophylaxis in preventing infections and infection-related deaths after surgical procedures and immunosuppressing cancer chemotherapy. We varied the identified effect sizes under different scenarios of reduction in the efficacy of antibiotic prophylaxis (10%, 30%, 70%, and 100% reductions) and estimated the additional number of infections and infection-related deaths per year in the USA for each scenario. We estimated the percentage of pathogens causing infections after these procedures that are resistant to standard prophylactic antibiotics in the USA. Findings We estimate that between 38·7% and 50·9% of pathogens causing surgical site infections and 26·8% of pathogens causing infections after chemotherapy are resistant to standard prophylactic antibiotics in the USA. A 30% reduction in the efficacy of antibiotic prophylaxis for these procedures would result in 120 000 additional surgical site infections and infections after chemotherapy per year in the USA (ranging from 40 000 for a 10% reduction in efficacy to 280 000 for a 70% reduction in efficacy), and 6300 infection-related deaths (range: 2100 for a 10% reduction in efficacy, to 15 000 for a 70% reduction). We estimated that every year, 13 120 infections (42%) after prostate biopsy are attributable to resistance to fluoroquinolones in the USA. Interpretation Increasing antibiotic resistance potentially threatens the safety and efficacy of surgical procedures and immunosuppressing chemotherapy. More data are needed to establish how antibiotic prophylaxis recommendations should be modified in the context of increasing rates of resistance. Funding DRIVE-AB Consortium.
To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(15)00538-1 Byline: Hattie E Webb, Sophie A Granier, Muriel Marault, Yves Millemann, Henk C den Bakker, Kendra K Nightingale, Marie Bugarel, Sarah A Ison, H Morgan Scott, Guy H Loneragan Author Affiliation: (a) International Center for Food Industry Excellence, Department of Animal and Food Sciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, USA (b) Laboratory for Food Safety, ANSES, Universite Paris-Est, Maisons-Alfort F-94701, France (c) Alfort National Veterinary School, Universite Paris-Est, Maisons-Alfort, France (d) Department of Veterinary Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA
Summary Background Neisseria meningitidis is an important cause of meningitis and septicaemia, but most infected individuals experience a period of asymptomatic carriage rather than disease. Previous studies have shown that carriage rates vary by age and setting; however, few have assessed carriage across all ages. We aimed to estimate the age-specific prevalence of meningococcal carriage. Methods We searched Embase, Medline, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, and grey literature for papers reporting carriage of N meningitidis in defined age groups in European countries or in countries with a similar epidemiological pattern (where disease caused by serogroups B and C predominates). We used mixed-effects logistic regression with a natural cubic spline to model carriage prevalence as a function of age for studies that were cross-sectional or serial cross-sectional. The model assessed population type, type of swab used, when swabs were plated, use of preheated plates, and time period (decade of study) as fixed effects, with country and study as nested random effects (random intercept). Findings Carriage prevalence increased through childhood from 4·5% in infants to a peak of 23·7% in 19-year olds and subsequently decreased in adulthood to 7·8% in 50-year olds. The odds of testing positive for carriage decreased if swabs were not plated immediately after being taken compared with if swabs were plated immediately (odds ratio 0·46, 95% CI 0·31–0·68; p=0·0001). Interpretation This study provides estimates of carriage prevalence across all ages, which is important for understanding the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of meningococcal infection. Funding None.
Summary Background Intensified antibiotic treatment might improve the outcome of tuberculous meningitis. We assessed pharmacokinetics, safety, and survival benefit of several treatment regimens containing high-dose rifampicin and moxifloxacin in patients with tuberculous meningitis in a hospital setting. Methods In an open-label, phase 2 trial with a factorial design in one hospital in Indonesia, patients (aged >14 years) with tuberculous meningitis were randomly assigned to receive, according to a computer-generated schedule, first rifampicin standard dose (450 mg, about 10 mg/kg) orally or high dose (600 mg, about 13 mg/kg) intravenously, and second oral moxifloxacin 400 mg, moxifloxacin 800 mg, or ethambutol 750 mg once daily. All patients were given standard-dose isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and adjunctive corticosteroids. After 14 days of treatment all patients continued with standard treatment for tuberculosis. Endpoints included pharmacokinetic analyses of the blood and cerebrospinal fluid, adverse events attributable to tuberculosis treatment, and survival. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov , number NCT01158755. Findings 60 patients were randomly assigned to receive rifampicin standard dose (12 no moxifloxacin, ten moxifloxacin 400 mg, and nine moxifloxacin 800 mg) and high dose (ten no moxifloxacin, nine moxifloxacin 400 mg, and ten moxifloxacin 800 mg). A 33% higher dose of rifampicin, intravenously, led to a three times higher geometric mean area under the time-concentration curve up to 6 h after dose (AUC0–6 ; 78·7 mg.h/L [95% CI 71·0–87·3] vs 26·0 mg.h/L [19·0–35·6]), maximum plasma concentrations (Cmax ; 22·1 mg/L [19·9–24·6] vs 6·3 mg/L [4·9–8·3]), and concentrations in cerebrospinal fluid (0·60 mg/L [0·46–0·78] vs 0·21 mg/L [0·16–0·27]). Doubling the dose of moxifloxacin resulted in a proportional increase in plasma AUC0–6 (31·5 mg.h/L [24·1–41·1] vs 15·1 mg.h/L [12·8–17·7]), Cmax (7·4 mg/L [5·6–9·6] vs 3·9 mg/L [3·2–4·8]), and drug concentrations in the cerebrospinal fluid (2·43 mg/L [1·81–3·27] vs 1·52 mg/L [1·28–1·82]). Intensified treatment did not result in increased toxicity. 6 month mortality was substantially lower in patients given high-dose rifampicin intravenously (ten [35%] vs 20 [65%]), which could not be explained by HIV status or severity of disease at the time of presentation (adjusted HR 0·42; 95% CI 0·20–0·91; p=0·03). Interpretation These data suggest that treatment containing a higher dose of rifampicin and standard-dose or high-dose moxifloxacin during the first 2 weeks is safe in patients with tuberculous meningitis, and that high-dose intravenous rifampicin could be associated with a survival benefit in patients with severe disease. Funding Royal Dutch Academy of Arts and Sciences, Netherlands Foundation for Scientific Research, and Padjadjaran University, Bandung, Indonesia.
To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(15)00540-X Byline: Abiola Olumuyiwa Olaitan, Selma Chabou, Liliane Okdah, Serge Morand, Jean-Marc Rolain Author Affiliation: (a) Aix-Marseille Universite, URMITE, 13385 Marseille Cedex 5, France (b) Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution, CNRS-IRD-UM2, CC065, Montpellier, France (c) CNRS-CIRAD, Centre d'Infectiologie Christophe Merieux du Laos, Vientiane, Lao PDR
Summary The world is becoming urban. The UN predicts that the world's urban population will almost double from 3·3 billion in 2007 to 6·3 billion in 2050. Most of this increase will be in developing countries. Exponential urban growth is having a profound effect on global health. Because of international travel and migration, cities are becoming important hubs for the transmission of infectious diseases, as shown by recent pandemics. Physicians in urban environments in developing and developed countries need to be aware of the changes in infectious diseases associated with urbanisation. Furthermore, health should be a major consideration in town planning to ensure urbanisation works to reduce the burden of infectious diseases in the future.
Summary Background RTS,S/AS01E is the lead candidate malaria vaccine. We recently showed efficacy against clinical falciparum malaria in 5–17 month old children, during an average of 8 months follow-up. We aimed to assess the efficacy of RTS,S/AS01E during 15 months of follow-up. Methods Between March, 2007, and October, 2008, we enrolled healthy children aged 5–17 months in Kilifi, Kenya, and Korogwe, Tanzania. Computer-generated block randomisation was used to randomly assign participants (1:1) to receive three doses (at month 0, 1, and 2) of either RTS,S/AS01E or human diploid-cell rabies vaccine. The primary endpoint was time to first clinical malaria episode, defined as the presence of fever (temperature ≥37·5°C) and a Plasmodium falciparum density of 2500/μL or more. Follow-up was 12 months for children from Korogwe and 15 months for children from Kilifi. Primary analysis was per protocol. In a post-hoc modelling analysis we characterised the associations between anti-circumsporozoite antibodies and protection against clinical malaria episodes. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov , number NCT00380393. Findings 894 children were assigned, 447 in each treatment group. In the per-protocol analysis, 82 of 415 children in the RTS,S/AS01E group and 125 of 420 in the rabies vaccine group had first or only clinical malaria episode by 12 months, vaccine efficacy 39·2% (95% CI 19·5–54·1, p=0·0005). At 15 months follow-up, 58 of 209 children in the RTS,S/AS01E group and 85 of 206 in the rabies vaccine group had first or only clinical malaria episode, vaccine efficacy 45·8% (24·1–61·3, p=0·0004). At 12 months after the third dose, anti-circumsporozoite antibody titre data were available for 390 children in the RTS,S/AS01E group and 391 in the rabies group. A mean of 15 months (range 12–18 months) data were available for 172 children in the RTS,S/AS01E group and 155 in the rabies group. These titres at 1 month after the third dose were not associated with protection, but titres at 6·5 months were. The level of protection increased abruptly over a narrow range of antibody concentrations. The most common adverse events were pneumonia, febrile convulsion, gastroenteritis, and P falciparum malaria. Interpretation RTS,S/AS01E confers sustained efficacy for at least 15 months and shows promise as a potential public health intervention against childhood malaria in malaria endemic countries. Funding PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative (MVI), GlaxoSmithKline.
Summary Background Intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) for malaria is used in infants, children, adults, and pregnant women. Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) is an effective, well tolerated artemisinin-based combination therapy. The long half-life of piperaquine makes it attractive for IPT. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to establish the efficacy and safety of repeated treatment with DP. Methods Following PRISMA guidelines, we searched multiple databases on Sept 1, 2016, with the terms: “human” AND “dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine” OR “DHA-PPQ”. Studies were eligible if they were randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or prospective cohort studies involving repeat exposures to standard 3-day courses of DP for either seasonal malaria chemoprevention, mass drug administration, or treatment of clinical malaria, conducted at any time and in any geographic location. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to generate pooled incidence rate ratios and relative risks, or risk differences. Findings 11 studies were included: two repeat treatment studies (one in children younger than 5 years and one in pregnant women), and nine IPT trials (five in children younger than 5 years, one in schoolchildren, one in adults, two in pregnant women). Comparator interventions included placebo, artemether-lumefantrine, sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP), SP+amodiaquine, SP+piperaquine, SP+chloroquine, and co-trimoxazole. Of 14 628 participants, 3935 received multiple DP courses (2–18). Monthly IPT-DP was associated with an 84% reduction in the incidence of malaria parasitaemia measured by microscopy compared with placebo. Monthly IPT-DP was associated with fewer serious adverse events than placebo, daily co-trimoxazole, or monthly SP. Among 56 IPT-DP recipients (26 children, 30 pregnant women) with cardiac parameters, all QTc intervals were within normal limits, with no significant increase in QTc prolongation with increasing courses of DP. Interpretation Monthly DP appears well tolerated and effective for IPT. Additional data are needed in pregnancy and to further explore the cardiac safety with monthly dosing. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and NIH.
Treatment for drug-resistant tuberculosis is largely delivered through standardised, empirical combination regimens in low-resource, high-burden settings. However, individualised treatment, guided by detailed drug susceptibility testing, probably results in improved individual outcomes and is the standard of care in well-resourced settings. Driven by the urgent need to scale up treatment provision, new tuberculosis drugs, incorporated into standardised regimens, are being tested. Although standardised regimens are expected to improve access to treatment in high-burden settings, they are also likely to contribute to the emergence of resistance, even with good clinical management. We argue that a balance is required between the need to improve treatment access and the imperative to minimise resistance amplification and provide the highest standard of care, through a precision medicine approach. In tuberculosis, as in other diseases, we should aim to reduce the entrenched inequalities that manifest as different standards of care in different settings.